Is solar worth it with SCE in 2026? (No federal tax credit)

A typical SCE home at a glance

Solar only, a $250 monthly bill, no federal tax credit. From the worked examples below.

How SCE bills and credits solar

SCE residential rate schedule: TOU-D-4-9PM. This is a time-of-use plan, so the price of power depends on the time of day; we use the published rates and the residential average where the tariff does not give one number.

The rate schedule modeled here (E-TOU-C for PG&E, TOU-D 4-9 PM for SCE, TOU-DR1 for SDG&E) is a pre-solar average-rate proxy: it is the plan a typical home is on before adding solar, used to estimate your usage and the value of the power solar replaces. New customers who go solar under net billing (NEM 3.0) must move to a specific time-of-use plan instead: E-ELEC at PG&E, TOU-D-PRIME at SCE or EV-TOU-5 at SDG&E. See the California NEM 3.0 and batteries guide.

Prices as shown on SCE's Time-of-Use Residential Rate Plans page for 'TOU-D 4 PM to 9 PM', before the baseline credit and rounded to the nearest cent by SCE. Re-read on 2026-10-25 (after the October 1, 2026 change): the page still shows the same prices, but it is undated, so whether it reflects the October 1 change is unconfirmed.

California uses net billing (often called NEM 3.0). Solar used at home saves at SCE’s retail rate, and solar sent to the grid earns a lower export credit. Our model uses an average export credit of $0.05/kWh. CPUC 2025 Senate Bill 695 Report (Sept 30, 2025), p.42 text and footnote 127: 2024 ACC values for 2025 locked-in export rates, the average of generation and delivery rates across all hours, rounded, for PG&E, SCE and SDG&E. One statewide figure applied to all three utilities; an all-hours average, not weighted to solar production hours; the report does not state whether the ACC Plus adder is included.

A battery raises the share of solar used at home instead of exported, which is why it affects California payback differently than it does in Florida.

Data note: Source is an undated consumer rate-plan page with prices rounded to the cent, not the dated tariff sheet (SCE's Schedule TOU-D sheets are only in a SharePoint folder that cannot be read). SCE's Rate Advisory (https://www.sce.com/save-money/rates-financing/sce-rate-advisory) announces a residential change effective October 1, 2026 (average 34.4 to 34.5 cents/kWh, about +1.5% on a 500 kWh TOU-D-4-9PM bill) but prints no per-period prices, so these prices may be out of date by about 1.5%.

Rate data read on 2026-10-25. Tariff source. Export credit source, read on 2026-10-22: CPUC report. Every source is listed on the methodology page.

Worked examples on SCE rates

These use illustrative monthly bills, not SCE averages, for a home at a Irvine ZIP code (92612) with some shade, and no federal tax credit. Ranges are low to high, with the likely value for payback. Your home will differ.

• $150 a month · Solar only

  Installed cost

  $7,200–$10,900

  Year-1 savings

  $500–$900

  Payback (years)

  8–15.5 (likely 11)

• $150 a month · Solar + 1 battery

  Installed cost

  $19,600–$27,700

  Year-1 savings

  $800–$1,300

  Payback (years)

  12.5–23.5 (likely 15.5)

• $250 a month · Solar only

  Installed cost

  $13,000–$19,500

  Year-1 savings

  $1,000–$1,600

  Payback (years)

  8–15.5 (likely 11)

• $250 a month · Solar + 1 battery

  Installed cost

  $25,400–$36,300

  Year-1 savings

  $1,500–$2,200

  Payback (years)

  9.5–18.5 (likely 12.5)

• $350 a month · Solar only

  Installed cost

  $18,700–$28,100

  Year-1 savings

  $1,400–$2,200

  Payback (years)

  8–15.5 (likely 11)

• $350 a month · Solar + 1 battery

  Installed cost

  $31,100–$44,900

  Year-1 savings

  $2,200–$3,200

  Payback (years)

  8.5–16 (likely 11)

Payback “more than 25” means it did not pay back within the 25-year analysis period. Estimates, not quotes; installer prices and your usage will differ.

What changes your number

• Your bill and usage. Higher use means a bigger system and more bill to offset.
• Shade and roof direction. Less sun on the panels means less energy for the same cost.
• Installer price. Quotes vary; compare at least a few on the same system size.
• Rate changes. If SCE’s rates rise faster or slower than we assume, savings move with them.
• Credit rules. Net metering or export credit rules can change, and they affect how solar sent to the grid is valued.
• A battery. It adds cost and gives backup power; whether it also saves money depends on the rules above.
• How you pay. Our estimates assume buying with cash and leave out financing costs, maintenance and equipment replacement.